Abu Dhabi’s Non-Oil Economy: Reading the Sector Evidence

Construction and manufacturing each generated about AED30.5 billion of value added in Abu Dhabi in the third quarter of 2025, according to the figures Statistics Centre – Abu Dhabi published in February 2026. Construction grew 13.9% from the same quarter a year earlier. Manufacturing grew 2.4%. An identical figure for the size of the two activities came with very different growth rates, and a supplier would follow a different trail to find a customer in each. One trail leads to project packages and site schedules. The other leads to plant commissioning, production runs and maintenance budgets. SCAD Q3 2025 release.

This is a guide for a business deciding where to investigate demand in the emirate of Abu Dhabi. It uses a dated GDP snapshot for sector scale, then turns to administrative and operating indicators for evidence closer to a purchase. The distinction matters when a sales team is choosing which accounts to pursue, a distributor is deciding what to stock, or an operator is budgeting for a second facility.

Start with value added and the reporting period

SCAD’s February release put total Abu Dhabi GDP at AED325.7 billion for Q3 2025 and estimated that non-oil activities generated AED175.6 billion, or about 54% of the total. It reported year-on-year growth of 7.7% for the economy and 7.6% for non-oil activity. The 54% figure measures composition in one quarter. The 7.6% figure measures change relative to the same quarter of 2024. A sector can make up a large part of the economy while growing slowly, or rise quickly from a small base. A buyer’s market can also grow at a different rate from the broader activity that contains it. SCAD Q3 2025 release.

SCAD defines non-oil GDP in terms of output less intermediate consumption in non-oil activities. If an Abu Dhabi factory buys inputs and turns them into finished products, the sale value includes the cost of those inputs. The value-added measure accounts for the contribution created in production. The distinction also applies to a distributor whose sales include the value of imported stock. Neither company’s turnover provides a direct equivalent to the emirate’s sector GDP. Likewise, a business may sit inside a non-oil statistical activity while supplying customers whose budgets depend on hydrocarbons. A maintenance contractor can assess that dependency from its customer list and contracts. The activity classification answers a separate question about where production sits in the accounts. SCAD national accounts definitions.

In May 2026, SCAD announced a comprehensive revision and rebasing initiative. It identified areas for improved coverage including retail and wholesale, finance, real estate and digitally enabled activities. Its September Digital Economy Survey announcement described a separate effort to collect evidence on digital activity across businesses. For a trend workbook, record the release date and price basis with each observation, and replace a historical series together when a new official vintage becomes available. The table below preserves the figures in the February release as a dated snapshot. SCAD revision announcement, SCAD Digital Economy Survey.

The table covers selected activities from the release, with the amounts as published. It gives a first screen for the industries worth investigating. Commercial evidence should then be collected at the geography of delivery. A statistic for the whole emirate can include activity far beyond Abu Dhabi city, while a service crew’s realistic coverage depends on where the customers and assets actually are. SCAD Q3 2025 release.

Construction and property have several buying windows

Abu Dhabi’s Department of Municipalities and Transport reported approving 20.8 million square metres of gross floor area in Q1 2026, 17.3% above Q1 2025. It separately reported 3,244 work start notices, up 14.3%, and 34,391 inspection requests, up 24.5%. Floor area describes the scale of approvals. Work start notices and inspection requests show other stages of activity, measured as counts. A project can generate more than one inspection request. These totals give different views of the development market, and the aggregate release does not establish that the approvals, starts and requests belong to the same projects. DMT Q1 2026 development figures.

A company selling temporary power may see demand early in a construction programme. A commissioning specialist needs the installation sequence and the dates for testing. A facilities provider depends on the handover schedule, the party that manages the building and the scope of its maintenance contract. Each can begin with the same macro figures and end with a different list of prospects. An enquiry that names a building and a handover month is a better input for scheduling crews than aggregate approved floor area. SCAD also lists a separate building completions series, which gives businesses another way to follow what is reaching the later stages. SCAD publication catalogue.

Manufacturing demand changes as a plant moves into operation

Abu Dhabi’s 2025 industrial results show why the stage of a project matters. The emirate reported 411 new industrial licences, 206 licences moving into the construction phase and 115 new establishments moving into full operation. The preceding year’s figures were 342, 150 and 75 respectively. The government release reports activity at three stages during the year. Calculating a conversion rate by dividing 115 by 411 would require knowing how many operating establishments came from that same cohort of new licences. The release gives no such cohort link. Abu Dhabi Media Office manufacturing update.

The Abu Dhabi Investment Office’s April reel promoted Make it in the Emirates 2026 to an audience of manufacturers, investors and innovators. It gives a view of how industrial buyers and partners are brought together in Abu Dhabi. The operating-stage figures above come from the emirate’s separate administrative update. Abu Dhabi Investment Office on Instagram.

For a factory equipment supplier, a construction-stage lead may mean checking layouts, utilities and the date machinery can enter the building. A maintenance supplier could start with plants already in operation, then identify installed equipment, warranty coverage, shift patterns and the procurement calendar. A distributor of consumables needs enough operating history to understand consumption and reorder frequency. SCAD’s Q2 2026 Industrial Production Index is another check for the industries it covers. Choose the relevant activity and compare observations from the same series, since the broad index also covers activities beyond manufacturing. SCAD industrial production catalogue, SCAD production index definitions.

Trade and financial activity call for narrower tests

Abu Dhabi Customs reported that the emirate’s non-oil foreign trade exceeded AED415.4 billion in 2025, about 36% higher than the previous year. The report distinguishes imports, exports and re-exports. SCAD also lists monthly non-oil merchandise statistics through the emirate’s ports, including a release covering August 2026. A logistics company can use these sources to identify categories and directions to investigate. A business selling temperature-controlled handling still needs product mix, shipment frequency, seasonality and operating requirements. The value of a shipment says little about how many pallets it occupies, how long it stays in storage, or whether an existing carrier contract is open to competition. Abu Dhabi Customs 2025 trade figures, SCAD publication catalogue.

For a company selling software or business services, the finance and insurance GDP line can justify mapping potential buyers in Abu Dhabi. The next question is who can authorise a pilot and whether they have a budget for the problem. A vendor offering compliance workflow software would ask what process the buyer wants to shorten, which evidence it must retain and who owns the implementation. The sector’s value added measures finance and insurance activity. The sales decision turns on a particular organisation’s requirements, budget and ability to adopt the product. SCAD Q3 2025 release.

Keep a separate record for exposure to the same underlying project. A warehouse fitting job could appear in a construction lead list when the building goes up, and in a logistics lead list when the operator prepares to move in. If both records refer to the same equipment order, combining the two estimates overstates the opportunity. If one covers installation and the other a separately contracted service, record the different buyers, start dates and contract scopes. This is particularly useful when a business assigns separate account managers to developers, tenants and operators.

Build a forecast around the next observable step

Imagine an Abu Dhabi maintenance firm that has found 12 plants with equipment its engineers can service. Six have confirmed that an external supplier can submit a quote during the next quarter. Suppose each bid would be worth AED40,000 and the firm assumes it wins a third of the six. The working revenue scenario is AED80,000, from two wins at AED40,000 each. If each job contributes AED12,000 after direct labour, parts and travel, the same scenario contributes AED24,000 before fixed costs. These are hypothetical figures. The inputs can be revised as quotes go out and decisions arrive, and the timing of customer payments belongs in a separate cash forecast.

The company can now see which evidence would change its decision. A plant pushing its shutdown date back by two months would affect when technicians are available and when invoices can be raised. A customer with a signed service order could justify reserving a crew. The latest sector release provides context for the prospecting effort. For a hiring or inventory decision, the strongest evidence in this example is the work actually scheduled, its contribution and the expected payment date.

A simple tracking sheet can keep one row per activity and one per buying opportunity. For the activity, record the emirate, period, release date and unit. For the opportunity, record the site, buying stage, budget owner, next observable step and expected payment. Check whether the indicators are arriving in the order the business depends on. If new licences rise but several target plants delay commissioning, a supplier may keep talking to those accounts while revising its near-term revenue forecast. If work starts and signed orders arrive together, the case for deploying resources becomes easier to evaluate.

Three questions to ask when the next release lands

Can the non-oil share rise while total output falls?

Yes. A share depends on both non-oil activity and total activity. In an illustration, non-oil value added rises from 55 to 56 units while total output falls from 100 to 98. Its share rises from 55% to about 57.1%, even though non-oil activity grew by only about 1.8%. That is why a dashboard should keep the share, non-oil growth and total growth in separate columns and label the price basis for each.

Which figure matters most if I sell into several sectors?

Start by grouping customers by what triggers their purchases. A factory and a logistics operator might both need maintenance, but each might follow a different contract renewal cycle. Track the installed equipment and tender dates in each group, then look for exposure to shared customers or projects. This makes it easier to see how a delay at one buyer might affect multiple sales lines.

What should I do when a GDP series is revised?

Keep the original publication date in your records and compare the revised periods on a consistent basis before calculating a trend. Separate a revision to earlier figures from economic activity recorded for a new period. SCAD said it would publish methodological documentation alongside the revised estimates. SCAD revision announcement.